Derby Day
From the Cheap Seats
by Chris Hahn
It’s that time of year again. The roses are in bloom and twenty of the world’s best horses will run for them. On Saturday, Chrurchill Downs will host the 129th Kentucky Derby, and even the folks that watch one horse race a year will tune in. So although only a fraction of the audience watching the ‘Run for the Roses’ will actually have a betting interest, everyone wants to impress their friends with their predictions. The problem is that the Derby is one of the hardest races to predict.
So why do even the best handicappers struggle with the Kentucky Derby?
Youth. Distance. Size. Just to name a few.
Youth? The Derby is for the top three-year-olds, which are still building their bodies and strength. At that age they can still go through significant swings in their performance, so a horse that looks great one race may be flat the next.
Distance? The Derby is a furlong (1/8 mile) longer than any of these horses have ever run before. It can be difficult to predict how different horses will be able to handle the extra length. Even the best ‘milers’ can hit a wall if they aren’t in condition to go the full mile and a quarter.
Size? The Derby can have up to twenty horses. This year there will be seventeen in the starting gate, which is far more in one race than any of these horses have seen. If a horse doesn’t get a good start, he may find himself far back early. Many of these horses are going to be squeezed into the middle of a huge pack for one of the first times, and some don’t like that too well.
But what you really want to know is simple…who will win the race?
If I knew for sure I would be phoning in my bets from a private jet and telling you which stocks are going to triple this year, too. But since I’ll be at the windows placing a few wagers, here’s the way I see it:
Empire Maker will be the heavy favorite, which is also why many will stay away from him. There will be legally drinking ‘adults’ in the Downs infield who have been alive long enough for only one favorite to win the Derby. It has almost become taboo to admit publicly you like the favorite. That being said, there is a reason Empire Maker will have the most money on him. I’m convinced the biggest idiots are the ones who don’t bet a favorite, then afterwards say ‘Well, I knew he was the best horse.” Bottom line: it’s his Derby to lose.
But if he doesn’t pull it off, there are several good horses ready to stroll into the winners’ circle themselves. Ten Most Wanted has been training well all week and will probably get a lot of “I can’t be the favorite” money, while Buddy Gil and Indian Express are the others who could cross the wire first. Peace Rules nearly gets into this group, but instead goes to the top of the next tier. Joining him there are Sir Cherokee and Atswhatimtalknbout (who also has been training well). If you play the exotics, it’s worth keeping these guys in your exacta equation. And to keep you from throwing out your trifecta tickets, Funny Cide (most likely of this bunch), Brancusi, or Scrimshaw could hit the board.
As for a longshot play, the one that might be worth taking a flier on is Eye of the Tiger. Don’t ask why…I just have a gut instinct that he might like the distance and close at the end. (Once again, though, if my gut instincts were right all the time I WOULD be on that private jet!). And if I didn’t mention them, then they are welcome to beat me – but I won’t be spending my bankroll on them.
So there you go. Proceed at your own risk (although I’ll gladly accept commissions if all go as handicapped by yours truly). This is a day that showcases the ‘Sport of Kings’, so whether you place a bet or just watch for the fun, take the time to appreciate these lovely creatures and what they do.
Enjoy Derby Day!